- The Real Effects of Financial Markets
- Economics A-Z terms beginning with A | The Economist
- Journal of Financial Economics
- Financial Economics from a Dynamic Perspective
What are the factors associated with movements up and down the income tower over time? This book addresses such questions with extensive new analysis based on data from the British Household Panel Survey BHPS covering —, providing a comprehensive and original study of income mobility and poverty dynamics. There is detailed discussion of why longitudinal perspectives on the income distribution are of interest, and of the relevant concepts and measures.
There is in-depth discussion of the BHPS and its household income data, and comparisons with other national and international longitudinal data sources.
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The book shows that patterns of income mobility in Britain have not changed over the last two decades but fewer people are persistently poor, and it discusses the reasons for these trends. Based on his twelve years of How has the Chinese economy managed to grow at such a remarkable rate — no less than ten per cent per annum — for over three decades? This book combines economic theory, empirical estimation, and This book combines economic theory, empirical estimation, and institutional analysis to address one of the most important questions facing contemporary economists.
The book examines the causal processes at work in the evolution of China's institutions and policies. It estimates cross-country and cross-province growth equations to shed light on the proximate, and some of the underlying, determinants of the growth rate. It explores important consequences of China's growth, posing a series of key questions, such as: Is the economy running out of unskilled labour?
Why and how has inequality risen; has economic growth raised happiness? What are the social costs of the overriding priority accorded to growth objectives? Can China continue to grow rapidly, or will the maturing economy, or the macroeconomic imbalances, or financial crisis, or social instability, bring it to an end? Commodities: Markets, Performance, and Commodities: Markets, Performance, and Strategies provides a comprehensive view of commodity markets, describing historical commodity performance, vehicles for investing in commodities, portfolio strategies, and current topics.
The book begins with the rudiments of commodity markets and how investors gain exposure to commodity returns through various investment vehicles. It then highlights the unique risk and return profiles of commodity investments set in the global marketplace among more traditional investments. In this context, the book examines the use of commodity markets to manage risk, highlighting recent blowups that result from mismanaged risk practices.
It also provides important insights about current topics, including high frequency trading, financialization, and the emergence of virtual currencies as commodities. The book balances useful practical advice on commodity exposure while introducing the reader to various pitfalls inherent in these markets. Readers interested in a basic understanding will benefit as will those looking for more in-depth presentations of specific areas within commodity markets.
Overall, Commodities: Markets, Performance, and Strategies provides a fresh look at the myriad dimensions of investing in these globally important markets from experts from around the world. This book presents a new set of practical and powerful tools to help business get the full benefit from their information technology IT investments.ozarign5da.mixseller.com/bym-comprar-chloroquine.php
The Real Effects of Financial Markets
It addresses how organizations can work together It addresses how organizations can work together to improve business performance. It elaborates on the approach for assessing the maturity of IT-business alignment; once maturity is understood, businesses can identify opportunities for enhancing the harmonious relationship of business and IT. The book is divided into eight parts, with parts II-VII focusing on the six strategic alignment maturity assessment criteria. All Rights Reserved. Under the terms of the licence agreement, an individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in OSO for personal use for details see www.
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Keywords: arbitrage theory , financial derivatives , martingale approach. Keywords: arbitrage theory , contingent pricing , financial derivatives , futures , interest rates , optimal control , options , portfolio optimisation , term structure. Keywords: asset allocation , risks , investments , asset classes , investors , factor risks. Back Published in print: Keywords: asset pricing theory , portfolio choice , stochastic discount factor , factor model , CAPM , stochastic calculus.
Keywords: Black-Scholes , bond pricing , CAPM , complete markets framework , discrete time , constant or declining elasticity , Libor market model , multi-period asset pricing , non-marketable background risks , rational expectations. Brunnermeier Published in print: Keywords: banks , financial institutions , capital regulation , asset-liabilities strategy , lending strategies , credit appraisal , risk analysis , liquidity protection , portfolio approach , credit exposure , loan management. Keywords: affecting individual investors. Keywords: migration , selective migration policy , highly skilled migrants , brain gain , brain drain , migration trends , determinants of migration , return migration , diaspora externalities.
Business Cycle Theory Lutz G.
Economics A-Z terms beginning with A | The Economist
Arnold Published in print: If one agency gave realistic assessments of the high risk associated with these securities while others did not, that firm would see its profit plummet. Thus, it made sense for investment banks to shop their securities around, looking for the agency that would give them the highest ratings, and it made sense for agencies to provide excessively optimistic ratings. Reregulation of financial markets will not be effective unless it substantially reduces the perverse incentives that pervade the system. Financial innovation has proceeded to the point where important structured financial products are so complex that they are inherently non-transparent.
They cannot be priced correctly, are not sold on markets and are illiquid. The explosion of these securities created large profits at giant financial institutions, but also destroyed the transparency necessary for any semblance of market efficiency. Indeed, the value of securities not sold on markets may exceed the value of securities that are.
Thus, the claim that competitive capital markets price risk optimally, which is the foundation of the NFA, does not apply even in principle to these securities. A mortgage-backed CDO converts the cash flows from the mortgages in its domain into tranches or slices that have different risk characteristics. Banks sell the tranches to investors. Higher power CDOs are particularly difficult to value because many mortgages appear in more than one of the underlying CDOs.
To understand the inherent non-transparency of a CDO, consider the conclusion of a textbook discussion of CDO price determination: Even with a mathematical approach to handling correlation, the complexity of calculating the expected default payment, which is what is needed to arrive at a CDO price, grows exponentially with an increasing number of reference assets [the original mortgages]…. As it turns out, it is hard to derive a generalized model or formula that handles this complex calculation while still being practical to use.
Chacko et al.
Journal of Financial Economics
The relation between the value of a CDO and the value of its mortgages is complex and nonlinear. Significant changes in the value of underlying mortgages induce large and unpredictable movements in CDO values. Ratings agencies and the investment banks that create these securities rely on extremely complicated simulation models to price them. It can take a powerful computer several days to determine the price of a CDO. These models are unreliable and easily manipulated statistical black boxes.
Who could then ever be able to correctly price or value a CDO cubed? Demand for CDOs was strong in the boom because buyers could borrow money cheaply, returns were high and the products carried top ratings. But when the housing boom ended and defaults increased, the fact that no one knew what these securities were worth caused demand and liquidity to evaporate and prices to plummet.
The celebratory narrative of the NFA had assured investors this could not happen. Efficient market theory asserts that liquidity will always be available to support security prices. Yet when the crisis hit, CDOs could be sold, if at all, only at an enormous loss. Gillian Tett, senior capital market analyst for the Financial Times , contrasted the myth and the reality of the effects of complex financial innovation in this era: Innovation became so intense that it outran the comprehension of most ordinary bankers—not to mention regulators.
As a result, not only is the financial system plagued with losses on a scale that nobody foresaw, but the pillars of faith on which this new financial capitalism were built have all but collapsed. Tett, Moreover, it was believed that banks hedged whatever risk remained through CDSs. Both these propositions turned out to be false.
Second, CDOs were especially attractive assets for banks to keep since they could be held off-balance-sheet with no capital reserve requirements , a development discussed below. When demand for MBSs and CDOs collapsed, banks were left holding huge amounts of mortgages and mortgage-backed products they could not sell. The collapse in the price of these products is the main source of the massive bank losses that are the driving force of the crisis. Merrill Lynch was one of the two largest underwriters of CDOs in the 3 years leading up to the crisis. Fortune Magazine described the end game of this process: Merrill apparently made a pivotal—and reckless—decision.
It bought big swaths of the AAA paper itself, loading the debt onto its own books…. The amounts were staggering. That this huge position went unhedged astonishes everyone on Wall Street… Fortune Magazine , , emphasis added. But as long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance. The main cause of this asset growth was the incredible rise in bank holdings of MBSs and CDOs, the kinds of securities that banks were supposed to sell rather than hold in the narrative of the NFA.
The U. Claims that banks hedged most risk through CDSs were equally shaky. Credit default swaps are derivatives that allow one party to insure against loss from loan defaults by paying insurance fees to another party. This reflects moral hazard of the highest order. Firms like Goldman could gamble with confidence on risky CDOs only because they bought insurance from risk-laden AIG, who they knew was drastically under-capitalised. When they lost their bet on AIG, the public was forced to pay the bill because former Goldman Chief Executive Henry Paulson, acting in his capacity as Secretary of the Treasury, decided to rescue AIG even though he had previously let Lehman Brothers default Paulson had to have known that Goldman would receive billions of dollars as the result of his decision.
Though CDO prices had plunged, the government inexplicably paid banks their full face value. The regulators thus allowed the dominant financial firms and their top bonus recipients to engage in publicly subsidised win—win gambles.
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Securitisation and the rise of CDSs did raise big-bank profits for many years, but they eventually created huge losses that more than wiped out the cumulative gains made over the long boom. In the late s, banks were allowed to hold risky securities off their balance sheets in SIVs with no capital required to support them.
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The regulatory system thus induced banks to move as much of their assets off-balance-sheet as possible. When the demand for risky financial products cooled off in mid , bank-created off-balance-sheet SIVs became the buyer of last resort for the ocean of new MBSs and CDOs emanating from investment banks. At the end of , J. For Citigroup this represented about half the bank's overall assets.
Wall Street Journal , SIVs were supposed to be stand-alone institutions that paid service fees to the originating banks, but to which the originating banks had no obligations or commitments.
Financial Economics from a Dynamic Perspective
They borrowed short-term in the commercial paper market and used this money to buy long-term, illiquid but highly profitable securities such as CDOs—a very dangerous game. To enable this commercial paper to receive AAA ratings and thus low interest rates, originating banks had to provide their SIVs with guaranteed lines of credit.
This made the banks vulnerable to problems experienced by their supposedly independent SIVs. This triggered a mass exodus from the asset-backed commercial paper market. With the disappearance of their major source of funding, banks were forced to move these damaged assets to their balance sheets. Contrary to the assumed transparency of financial markets, until SIVs began to collapse very few experienced financial market professionals knew they existed. The combination of bank write downs on assets held on-balance-sheet combined with devalued SIV assets that had to be moved back onto balance sheets severely eroded bank capital.
This in turn forced banks to try to lower their risk by raising interest rates and cutting loans to other financial institutions and to households and nonfinancial businesses. Deregulation allowed financial conglomerates to become so large and complex that neither insiders nor outsiders could accurately evaluate their risk. The Bank for International Settlement told national regulators to allow banks to evaluate their own risk—and thus set their own capital requirements—through a statistical exercise based on historical data called Value at Risk VAR.
Government officials thus ceded to banks, as they had to ratings agencies, crucial aspects of regulatory power. VAR is an estimate of the highest possible loss in the value of a portfolio of securities over a fixed time interval with a specific statistical confidence level. There are four fundamental flaws in this mode of risk assessment.
First, there is no time period in which historical data can be used to generate a reliable estimate of current risk. If firms use data from the past year or less, as is standard practice, then during boom periods such as to mid VAR exercises will show that risk is minimal because defaults and capital losses on securities are low. Banks thus need to set aside only a small amount of capital against estimated risk, which allows them to aggressively expand leverage, which in turn accelerates security price increases. On the other hand, if data from past decades are used, the existence of past crises will raise estimated risk, but financial markets will have undergone such fundamental change that these estimates will bear no relation whatever to current risk.
Second, VAR models assume that security prices are generated by a normal distribution. Even a 7. Allowing banks to estimate risk and set capital requirements on the assumption that large losses cannot happen left them vulnerable when the crisis erupted. Third, the asset-price correlation matrix is a key determinant of measured VAR. The lower the correlation among security prices, the lower the portfolio's risk. VAR models assume that future asset price correlations will be similar to those of the recent past. However, in crises the historical correlation matrix loses all relation to actual asset price dynamics.
Most prices fall together as investors run for liquidity and safety, and correlations invariably head toward one, as they did in the recent crisis. Again, actual risk is much higher than risk estimates from VAR exercises. Fourth, the trillions of dollars in assets held off balance sheet were not included in VAR calculations Blankfein, Reliance on VAR helped create the current crisis and left banks with woefully inadequate capital reserves when it broke out.
VAR-determined capital requirement are just one of many possible examples of totally ineffective regulatory processes within the NFA. The problems involved in risk management through VAR were apparent to everyone who understood even the outline of the procedure; you do not need specialist knowledge to spot them.
I explained the problems associated with VAR in Crotty, , a paper written in , well before the crisis developed. Yet only a few influential financial observers warned against the futility of standard risk management practices prior to the crisis because VAR-based risk assessment maximised bonuses. No one wanted to kill the goose that was laying golden eggs. It gave firms a false sense of complacency, because it ignored certain risks and relied heavily on past price movements. In some markets, VAR actually increased risk, because every trader assessed risk in the same flawed way.
Partnoy, , p. It was claimed that in the NFA, complex derivatives would allow the risk associated with securities to be divided into its component parts, such as interest rate and counter-party risk. Investors could buy only those risk segments they felt comfortable holding. Researcher Academy Author Services Try out personalized alert features. Read more. Jensen William H. Eugene F. Fama Kenneth R. Alexander Dyck Karl V. Do firms hedge with foreign currency derivatives for employees? Pinghsun Huang Hsin-Yi Huang Kee H.
Chung Junbo Wang Celso Brunetti Jeffrey H. Allen Ferrell Hao Liang Dominik Rehse Ryan Riordan Michael C. Most Cited Articles The most cited articles published since , extracted from Scopus. Kent Daniel Tobias J.